Paper value ของดอลลาร์จะจบลงแบบไหน

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Paper Value ของเงินดอลลาร์ที่ประเทศจีนถือครองเงินสหรัฐฯสูงมาก และทุกๆวันเงินดอลลาร์ลดค่าลงไปเรื่อยๆ มังกรหยกมหาอำนาจจีนจะจัดการแก้ปัญหาในเรื่องนี้อย่างไร

Yuan Yin-Yang

China holds a club over the White House and US Congress. China has supported the US debt by buying immense amounts of US bonds. In that the US buys goods from China, China also has US dollars in its reserves. Is this to China's advantage? In that the dollar is dropping, steadily, China in fact loses money by holding US dollars and bonds. Bonds are worth less when cashed in than when purchased, and each dollar held drops in values as time passes. Many countries are switching to using the Euro to avoid holding dollars, and oil producing nations are allowing the purchase of their oil in Euros or currencies other than the dollar. Nobody wants to be caught holding a commodity that is dropping in value! China has hitched their yuan to the US dollar, so their goods will continue to be attractive in price to US buyers. Their goods remain cheap in the US. The US buys Chinese goods, but the reverse is not true. China is not buying relatively expensive US goods. This is referred to as the "trade imbalance". The US also wants China to free the yuan from the dollar so what they owe China for US bonds will be less in true value. As time passes, the US will owe China less and less for the bonds they hold, which will shrink in relative value. Another step in the yin-yang dance is the huge US dollar reserves that China holds, as sales to the US are done in dollars. If China tries to dump their reserves of US dollars, exchanging these dollars for another currency, this flood on the market will cause the US dollar to plunge further. China and the US are thus in a nervous yin-yang dance. China is refusing to unhitch the yuan from the dollar, and threatening to dump their dollar reserves. The US is threatening to impose trade sanctions against Chinese imports.

China Threatens "Nuclear Option" of Dollar Sales
Aug 8, 2007
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/08/07/bcnchina107a.xml
The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation. Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress. Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies. Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels. It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900 billion in a mix of US bonds.

Does China consider the trade imbalance, where they have a certain market in the US for their goods, a type of payment for helping the Bush administration out with their monstrous national debt? Certainly, holding US bonds are not a good deal for China. Paulson, speaking for the White House, does not seems to want to aggravate China, but the US Congress is getting upset over the trade imbalance.

Paulson Warns Lawmakers on China Trade Bills
August 7, 2007 
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0723686220070807
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned on Tuesday it was a mistake for U.S. lawmakers to blame American job losses on global competition and use it as an excuse for passing protectionist trade laws aimed at China. But a key senator rebuffed his advice that the United States should stick with a strategy of negotiation and dialogue to persuade Beijing to let its yuan currency strengthen, saying a firmer hand was needed. Baucus, a Montana Democrat, and many other lawmakers believe that China deliberately undervalues its currency to make Chinese goods cheaper in U.S. consumer markets, hurting American competitors.

The Zetas have addressed this Yin-Yang dance, and how it might spin out of control. 

ZetaTalk Explanation 6/9/2007: China is a great worry for the Bush White House, not at all in control, the sleeping dragon awakened. China has been buying immense amounts of US bonds, and holds an immense amount of US dollars as a result. If they stopped buying these bonds, even at the reduced rate they have assumed, or started dumping dollars, they would devastate the US in a dropping dollar. Where this makes US manufactured goods cheaper worldwide, it makes US stocks and bonds worthless, and panic would set in. Bush knows this, but is smug in his knowledge that the Puppet Master does not want such a financial crisis. Thus, he antagonizes China like a little dog yapping at a bound and caged bear. We have the pet food fiasco, which they chose to blame on China food imports, when it was clear that only pet food was involved and this with a US nod in fact! Food shortages are to be disguised, no one to notice, and the bad food is thus not to be wasted. Little tit for tat games have begun, with China claiming some US foods or products are not safe, and the US continuing to make claims about Chinese products like toothpaste. All of this is exaggerated if not frankly made up. So given this scenario, what are Chinese leaders and Bush talking about, face to face? 

How it will go down, when the spiral starts. What was open ended was how the financial spiral would affect the US and China. At some point banking failures will result, but as with the many bank failures during the Great Depression, if no one calls them on their failure, they struggle along, the public none the wiser. Banks will have limited hours, limited withdrawals, and those trying to sell stock simply finding no buyers. For China, this means the dollars they hold will become worthless, the US refusing to exchange them for anything of worth, and likewise with the rest of the world. The dollar, like the stock market, may reflect on paper a value higher than it has, but no one will want to exchange anything of worth for dollars, a similar reaction to US stocks. What you hold is worthless, regardless of its face value. Given what is expected to happen during the pole shift, during the weeks preceding the pole shift, that all paper money will lose its value, this is not deemed a problem. It is the short term that Bush worries about, how quickly he will have to move to limited banking within the US, how he will have to react to demands from other countries to cash in US bonds for something of worth, like gold. He wants other countries to suffer but not him, as usual. He did not find a sympathetic ear! As China is squeezed, it will stop buying US bonds, forcing the US to print money faster, with higher inflation, and the spiral they wish to delay starting early and accelerating.

Housing Bubble Bust

Suddenly, easy credit for a mortgage is a thing of the past. Assists like allowing no down payment or balloon mortgages where the interest and payments are low at first - stopped. Credit has tightened. Why? Because the bubble has burst, and inflated housing prices are plunging. Per the Zetas, this bubble was allowed to develop in the first place so that the Bush economy would look healthy. Construction on new housing was booming. 

Question: Can the Zetas comment on how the housing market (and the economy that depends upon it) can continue to stay afloat with the subprime mortgage crisis and many many homes going into default on a daily basis? It seems as there is no one single control point for the market for housing to be rigged as the stock market is, that housing must eventually find its own level (presumably much lower). Are financial institutions continuing to carry foreclosed properly on the books at higher and higher levels to avoid a collapse? 

ZetaTalk Prediction 6/2/2007: The real estate market in the US has indeed been inflated above its value by easy money, no down payment and easy terms for the first few years. All this was designed, like the inflated value of stock, to keep the illusion of an economy perking along out there. The crew at the helm of these devices felt this day would never come! They felt that the pole shift, the last weeks, would occur long before this time. Thus the US has borrowed until no one wanted to lend anymore, then has been printing money so the value of each dollar drops faster, like a banana republic. Remember that during the Great Depression, most banks failed, most farms and businesses were bankrupt, but unless the credit holder called in the debt, this did not result in a bankruptcy! The situation was ignored, until the farm or business or bank could become solvent again, and all breathe a sigh of relief. For real estate, there are profiteers who will take the property to make a profit, but for many, terms will be worked out! No one involved wants this to be a smear on the Bush administration, who created this mess, so they will find loose money and have the mortgage holder sell their souls to stay in the house.

So what has been happening since June? Interest rates went up, credit approval tightened, and over 100 loan companies went into default to some degree!

August 7, 2007
http://ml-implode.com/
The imploded status is somewhat subjective and does not necessarily mean operations are ceased permanently: it can mean bankruptcy filing, temporary but open-ended halting of major operations, or a firesale acquisition. The companies include all types (prime, subprime, or a mix of both; retail or wholesale; subsidiaries and entire companies). Note: companies listed here may still be operating in some capacity; check with them before making assumptions.

Imploded Lenders:
112. HomeBanc Mortgage Corporation
111. Mylor Financial
110. Aegis (Everything)
109. Alternative Financing Corp (AFC) Wholesale
108. Winstar Mortgage
107. American Home Mortgage / American Brokers Conduit
106. Fieldstone Mortgage Company
105. Nations Home Lending
104. Wells Fargo Alternative Lending Wholesale
103. Entrust Mortgage
102. Flick Mortgage/Mortgage Simple
101. Alliance Bancorp
100. Choice Capital Funding

Despite the struggle, the Federal Reserve has refused to lower interest rates, citing concerns about inflation. The housing bust was termed a "correction".

Fed Holds
August 7, 2007
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent. Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year. Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing.

มีข่าวที่ยังไม่มีการยืนยันว่ารัฐบาลจีนขอให้สหรัฐฯทำสัญญาเปิดเขตเศรษฐกิจพิเศษ ในพื้นที่สูงที่จีนเลือกไว้สำหรับฐานโรงงานอุตสาหกรรมของตนบนแผ่นดินสหรัฐฯที่กว้างใหญ่ เพื่อแลกกับการเป็นหนี้ประเทศจีนสูงเป็นอันดับหนึ่ง ซึ่งหากจีนปล่อยมือเมื่อไร เศรษฐกิจของสหรัฐฯก็ปิดฉากทันที และรัฐบาลจีนก็ขาดลูกค้าที่ใช้สินค้าจีนเป็นหลักเช่นเดียวกัน โจทย์นี้ไม่ใช่แก้ได้ง่ายๆ แต่คงไม่พ้นสติปัญญาของมังกรหยกไปได้ เจ้าหน้าเสียงดังกว่าลูกหนี้อยู่แล้ว รอดูกันต่อไปว่าเกลียวสว่านที่กำลังซ้อนทับกันของ 2 ชาติมหาอำนาจโลกจะลงเอยด้วยดีร่วมกันหรือไม่

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